市场组合预测方法中单项方法选择分析

摘要

在市场预测中为满足预测要求，常采用组合预测方法。依据预测目的、对象特征、方法自身特点、历史信息类型、人员素质、成本等提出合理选取单项方法的途径。提出单项方法进入组合预测模型的德尔菲、逐步进入、逐步退出和跟踪筛选方法。为提高组合预测的精度提供思路。%In the market forecast, the commonly used combination forecast method was known as to achieve the purpose of forecasting. The characteristics of the forecast object and the prediction method, the information type, the quality of personnel as well as the cost were all discussed, in addition, the way of reasonable selection of single method was proposed. A single method into the combination forecasting model suggested by Delphi, inclusive of stepwise forward, stepwise backward and tracking selection method provides ideas for improving the forecasting precision of the combination forecast.