经济新常态下的地方政府债务、经济增长与CPI的关系研究

摘要

The outbreak of foreign government debt problem such as the European debt crisis has raised the attention to the debt issue .After 30 years of rapid growth ,China ’ s economic growth has slowed down while the local government debt has increased dramatically in recent years .If the local government debt could be predicted correctly ,it would be much helpful to reduce the risk and provide the basis for govern-ment policy-making decisions .In this paper ,local government debt and economic development data such as CPI and GDP growth rate are studied and granger causality test is performed .It shows that the decline of GDP growth rate and fiscal income is beneficial for the relief of local government debt issues .In con-sideration of the New Normal Development Stage in China ,policy suggestions are provided at the end .%我国经济在历经30多年高速增长后，正在转入中速增长区，而近几年来地方政府的债务规模却迅速增长，引起了社会的广泛关注。本文通过对1996年以来的社会经济发展数据进行分析，探索地方政府债务规模与GDP增长率和消费物价指数等影响因素的关系，并采用格兰杰（ Granger ）因果检验法，检验各变量彼此间的因果关系，结果表明GDP增长率和财政收入的下降，将有利于地方政府债务问题的缓解。同时，结合经济新常态的国情，本文为解决地方债务问题提出了相应的建议。