基于效用函数的突发事件应急物资需求分析

摘要

To ensure the emergency rescue efficiently, the accurate forecast for emergency supplies demand was one of the key links during emergency rescue process. Normalization of characteristic factors' value, weighting coefficients of characteristic factors and sensitivity of characteristic factors on time was taken into consideration in the paper. Normalization of utility function was introduced, too. To find the best similar case, weighting coefficients of characteristic factors were reached by using timing case weight adjustment. With the best similar case, emergency supplies based on case-reasoning method were solved. Finally, the feasibility and reasonableness of the method were analyzed. This method solved emergency supplies demand forecast under imprecision information condition and provided a theory of reference for emergency decision makers.%为保证突发事件应急救援的高效顺利开展,应急物资需求的准确预测是应急救援工作的关键环节之一.本文通过考虑特征因素值的归一化、特征因素的影响权重系数和各特征因素对时间的敏感性,引入了效用函数的归一化,采用基于时序的案例权重调整,获得特征因素的影响权重系数,寻求最佳相似源案例,以解决灾区应急物资需求问题的案例推理方法.并以实例分析了该方法的可行性和合理性.该方法很好地解决了信息不完备条件下应急物资需求的预测,为应急决策者提供一定的理论参考依据.