城乡居民收入差距分析与预测——基于ARMA模型的实证研究

摘要

Improving the income of all residents、reducing the urban-rural income gap between rural and urban are the basis and prerequisite of the harmonious development,which is related to the healthy development of economy and society.This paper introduces the changes about Yanbian average wage of workers in cities and rural per capita net income from 1980 to 2010,and uses the ARMA model to predict the gap between Yanbian average wage of workers in cities and rural per capita net income in 2011、2012,then analyzes the reasons why the gap generated,finally puts forward the proposal in order to narrow the gap.%提高居民收入,缩小城乡差距是城乡和谐发展的前提和基础。本文首先介绍1980——2010年间延边州城镇在岗职工平均工资和农民人均纯收入的变化情况,并使用ARMA模型预测了2011年、2012年延边州城镇在岗职工平均工资和农民人均纯收入之间的差距值,然后分析了产生差距的原因,最后就如何缩小差距提出了对策建议。