本文从风险投资市场资源稀缺的特征出发，建立了一个风险投资退出时机选择模型，在此基础上，运用2004-2011年中国风险投资退出的季度数据考察了技术冲击和市场利率等因素变化对风险投资退出时机的影响。研究发现：（1）资源稀缺的程度与风险投资退出时机的选择有着非常紧密的联系；（2）市场利率的变化对风险投资的退出行为的影响具有不对称性：市场利率下降可能会导致风险投资加速退出质量较差的风险企业，同时却更长时间地持有质量较好的风险企业；（3）技术进步会增加风险企业的数量，提高风险投资市场上风险企业的平均质量，加速风险投资退出。%Based on the characteristic of resources scarcity of venture capital market, we set up a model of the selection of exit time of venture capital and analyzed the impact of technology and interest rates on the exit time in this paper. The conclusion is as follows: firstly, there is a important relationship between the degree of resources scarcity and the exit time of venture capital; secondly, interest rates have a asymmetry influence on the behavior of exit for different venture capital; thirdly, the impact of technical will accelerate the exit of venture capital. So, we should use monetary policy to adjust monetary supply to meet the change of demand of capital caused by the technology and other factors.
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