An analysis framework was constructed to promote grain production in Henan Province by ex-amining crop yield per capita,the area sown,and grain crop planting structure adjustment from 2003 to 2013 in order to decompose the factors contributing to the"ten consecutive increase". The results show that the promo-tion of unit area yield of grain was the major factor leading to the grain production increase in the province over the past decade.However,its contribution rate is declining.Instead,the area sown has become the major factor contributing to grain production increase since 2006,mostly due to the increase of wheat and corn planting are-a;Grain production structural adjustment has positive effect on grain production increase.In view of limitation on the arable land constraints and grain planting structure adjustment scope,if grain production is expected to increase in Henan by following the consecutive increase pattern,the growth will not be sustainable.It is sugges-ted that the yield be increased through agricultural science and technology.In light of the different areas,the eastern and the southern area of Henan Province play a major role in grain output increase while expanded sown area in the western and northern part will make a greater contribution to grain production growth.%从作物单产水平、粮食播种面积、粮食作物内部种植结构调整3个层面构建促进粮食增产的分析框架对2003—2013年河南省粮食产量"十连增"的贡献因素进行分解测算,结果表明:从整体来看,过去十年间,粮食单产的提升是河南省粮食增产的主要贡献因素,但贡献率在逐年下降;播种面积对粮食增产的贡献逐年增加, 2006年后超过单产提升对粮食增产的贡献,成为首要的贡献因素,这主要源于小麦和玉米播种面积的增加;结构调整对粮食增产具有持续的正向作用. 鉴于耕地面积约束和粮食种植结构调整范围的有限性,如果今后依然按照河南省粮食"十连增"期间的增长模式,则粮食增产不具有可持续性. 通过农业科技进步促进单产提升是今后粮食持续增产的主攻方向. 分地区来看,豫南和豫东地区粮食单产提升对粮食总产量增加起到主要推动作用;而豫西、豫北地区播种面积扩大对粮食增产的贡献更大.
展开▼
