1998—2013年中国主要农作物化肥消费的脱钩分析

摘要

The paper researches the decoupling relation between China's crop production and chemical fertilizer consumption from 1998 to 2012 through the related theory and measuring model on"decoupling"and"coupling".Meanwhile,a decoupling-index decomposition model is constructed to extend the decoupling model,and the factors behind decoupling relationship is analyzed.The results show that:the relation between horticultural crop yields and chemical fertilizer consumption over the past 20 years belongs to strong decoupling while others belong to weak decoupling.Furthermore,it can be concluded that the increase of fertilizer use efficiency plays an important role in improving the decoupling degree between China's crop production and chem-ical fertilizer consumption while structure changes are of a minor effect.%利用相对"脱钩"、"复钩"理论和测度模型,对1998—2013年我国主要农作物产量增长与化肥消费之间的脱钩关系进行研究. 基于此,对脱钩评价模型进行扩展,构建脱钩指数分解模型,对脱钩关系的影响因素进行更为深入的分析. 结果表明:三大作物中只有园艺作物产量同化肥消费量为强脱钩关系,粮食作物和经济作物均处于弱脱钩状态. 分析得出:不同作物产量与化肥消费的"脱钩"与否主要取决于化肥利用效率,农产品结构调整的影响不仅相对有限,而且作用方向多变.