新型城镇化与区域可持续发展耦合协调度实证研究

摘要

An evaluation index system and coupling coordination degree model were constructed based on the description of new⁃type urbanization connotation.Then an empirical analysis was carried out on the coupling coordination degree of new⁃type urbanization and regional sustainable development of Liaoning Province in the period from 2000 to 2013.Using the econometrics methods,a dynamic econometric analysis was conducted on the coupling mechanism between new⁃type urbanization and regional sustainable development of Liaoning Prov⁃ince.The results showed that unbalanced development of regional economy was the most important factor which influences the coupling coordination between new⁃type urbanization and regional sustainable development.Dur⁃ing the 2000—2013 period,the coupling coordination degree between new⁃type urbanization and regional sus⁃tainable development of Liaoning Province increased from 0.284 2 to 0.574 5,the average annual growth rate reached 5.56%,and the rising trend was presented in general. The coupling coordination process strides from maladjustment stage to transitional stage,and experienced three steps,namely,moderate maladjustment step, reluctance coupling step and primary coupling step. The coordination coefficient for new urbanization to new industrialization was 0. 982 0. The coupling coordination degree between new-type urbanization and regional sustainable development of Liaoning Province will keep the stable increase tendency for a future period of time,the coupling coordination process will change from transitional stage to coupling coordination stage,and will achieve positive interaction and coordination development in 2019.%在阐述新型城镇发展内涵的基础上，构建新型城镇化和区域可持续发展的评价指标体系和耦合协调度模型，对辽宁省2000—2013年新型城镇化与区域可持续发展的耦合协调度进行实证研究。运用计量分析方法对辽宁省新型城镇化与区域可持续发展的耦合机理进行动态计量分析。结果表明：影响辽宁省新型城镇化与区域可持续发展耦合协调的主要原因是辽宁省区域经济可持续发展的不平衡；辽宁省新型城镇化与区域可持续发展的耦合协调度由2000年的0．2842增长至2013年的0．5745，平均年增长率为5．56％，总体上呈现上升趋势，耦合协调过程跨越失调阶段和过渡阶段2个区间，经历中度失调—勉强耦合—初级耦合3个阶段；辽宁省新型城镇化对区域可持续发展的协调系数为0．9820；未来一段时间辽宁省新型城镇化和区域可持续发展之间的耦合协调度将继续保持稳步提升的趋势，协调过程将从过渡阶段变为耦合协调阶段，并在2019年实现良性互动和协调发展。