政府负面网络舆情热度定量评价方法*--以新浪微博为例

摘要

In order to quantitatively evaluate the heat of microblog public opinion, a new evaluating method for negative Internet public o-pinion of government is proposed and designed from four dimensions of subjects, object, communications and audiences, of which the in-dex system consists of four evaluation elements and fourteen evaluation items. The evaluation items are sorted by the expert scoring meth-od, and the method is realized by constructing pair wised comparison matrix, calculating matrix eigenvector and testing matrix consisten-cy. Through calculating signal and combination weight, the public opinion is quantified by the weighted sum method. Theoretical analy-sis, empirical research, and comprehensive comparison results show that the method presented is effective. Thus, it provides a novel solu-tion to the analysis, guidance, management, and controlling of negative Internet public opinion of government.%以用户数最多、首暴网络舆情事件最频繁的新浪微博为例，设计了针对政府的负面网络舆情的热度定量评价方法。从针对政府的负面网络舆情主体、客体、传播、受众4个维度，细化了包含14个指标的评价体系，设计了指标的量化细则，依据专家打分法确定评价因素的重要性，通过构造判断矩阵、矩阵归一化处理、和积法计算特征向量、矩阵一致性校验等方法，在微调评价要素重要性排序基础上规划各评价要素的权重，进而设计基于微博、针对政府的负面网络舆情热度定量评价方法。理论分析、实证分析、综合对比结果表明：该方法有效，实际可操作性强，为针对政府的负面网络舆情分析、引导、管理和控制研究提供了理论依据。