运用定性和定量方法研究寿险市场发展与股市的关联性,分析股市波动可能引发的寿险市场系统性风险。从理论上分析寿险市场与投资环境具有关联性的原因,结合国内外研究成果和中国寿险市场的实证分析,提出寿险保费收入与股市具有密切联系;同时基于MATLAB7.0和Eviews5.0等软件,运用小波分析的方法和格兰杰检验法定量分析寿险保费收入与股市的关系,判断其领先滞后性,最后提出保险业应当如何防范系统性风险、根据经济周期变动正确引导消费者选择合适产品分散风险、匹配资产的建议。%This paper focuses on the relationship between life insurance and the investment environment combining with econometrics qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, and analyzes that systemic risks of life insurance industry may be caused by stock price. Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes why the relationship between life insurance and the investment environment exists and considers the situation of China combined with the research in the world, and draws the conclusion that the life insurance will be affected by stock market more obviously in China. Secondly, to find out the relationship accurately, this article quantifies their lead-lag relationship by using Wavelet Transform and Granger Test of Causality. This article proposes that they should take reasonable strategies and keep a stable management, and points out that it is an advisable choice for Chinese insurance industry to guide consumers to diversify their risks and allocate their asset.
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