中国碳排放的组合预测与减排缺口分析

摘要

预测我国碳排放量的变动趋势，对国家进行宏观经济管理和碳减排工作具有重要的参考价值。（1）利用中国1997～2011年碳排放数据，分别采用三次指数平滑模型、灰色模型、二次指数模型建立中国碳排放的单项预测模型；（2）采用标准差法进行非负权重分配，建立了中国碳排放的组合预测模型，结果表明，组合预测模型的精度高于单项预测模型。（3）应用该组合模型对中国2014～2026年的中国碳排放量。预测表明，中国碳排放存在较大的减排缺口，碳减排需要从优化产业结构、优化能源消费结构和改善能源利用效率上进行。%〔Abstract〕 The prediction of the movement of carbon emission in China has important reference value for the macroeconomic manage-ment and carbon emission reduction work . First of all , respectively established single forecasting model including three exponential smooth-ing model , grey model , two exponential model for China carbon prediction by the use of 1997~2011 years Chinese carbon emissions data . Secondly , established the non negative weights allocation combination prediction mode of Chinese carbon emissions by the use of the stan-dard deviation method , the results show that , the combination forecasting model is more accurate than the single forecasting model . Final-ly , the application of the combination forecasting model was used for prediction of the Chinese carbon emissions in 2014 to 2026 , the pre-diction shows that Chinese carbon emissions reduction exists larger gap . The Carbon emission reduction required the optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure , improvement of the efficiency of energy utilization .