Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions for thenext thirty years in China

摘要

Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fastgrowth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO(sub 2) emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO(sub 2) emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO(sub 2) emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO(sub 2) emissions could reach the current US levels.