中国城镇化、能源消耗与二氧化碳排放研究--基于1995～2011省级面板数据

摘要

中国城市化和工业化基本同步，城镇化率的提高对能源消费与二氧化碳排放产生了显著的影响。本文扩展了STIRPAT模型，使用1995～2011年中国30个省级面板数据，分析城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明：在全国层面上，城镇化加剧对能源消费的刚性需求并造成二氧化碳排放量增加。同时，中国城镇化碳排放存在很强的区域差异，在东部地区，城镇化率的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量，但在中西部地区，城镇化率的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论，我们探讨了未来我国低碳城镇发展的相关应对之策，即要适当降低土地城镇化速度，积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式，将新能源发展纳入城镇化建设规划，并积极调整产业结构和能源消费结构。%China's urbanization is nearly consistent with industrialization , and the progress of urbanization has significant effects on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions . This paper extends the STIRPAT model and uses the 1995~2011 provincial panel data , and also analyses urbanization construction's impact on energy consumption and CO2 emission effect in the national and regional level . The results show that :urbanization increases the demand on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the national level . At the same time , urbanization's carbon dioxide emissions has regional differences . Urbanization increases carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region , but reduces carbon dioxide emissions in the central and western regions . Based the conclusions on the above , we discusses the countermeasures of future low carbon urban development in China . We should reduce the speed of land urbanization appropriately , use differently policy measures in energy-saving and emission-reducing in three regions , incorporate the new energy development into the planning of urban-ization construction , and actively adjust the industrial structure and energy consumption structure .