According to the data during 1994-2014 in China , an empirical analysis is made on the relationship between interna-tional trade , industrial structure and national resident consumption by using a SVAR model . The results suggest that :the positive influ-ences of current international trade on industrial structure , current industrial structure on national resident consumption are significant . From the point of across phases , from the lag 1 to lag 6 , though fluctuate widely , industrial structure , national resident consumption and international trade all give positive response to the impulse of the other variable , and become basically stable after lag 6 . The impact of in-dustrial structure is becoming greater as time passes by , which has the most contribution to the variable of itself , international trade and na-tional resident consumption . International trade contributes 40.01% to the variable of industrial structure . National resident consumption contributes 18% to the variable of international trade .%本文基于中国1995~2014年的数据构建SVAR模型,实证检验了国际贸易、产业结构与国内居民消费间的影响关系。结果表明:当期国际贸易对产业结构、当期产业结构对国内居民消费分别具有显著的正向影响。从跨期来看,在滞后1~6期,产业结构、国内消费水平与国际贸易的相互冲击都呈现正向效应,但波动较大,而在第6期以后基本呈稳定状态;产业结构的影响随时间增强,是自身、国际贸易和国内居民消费波动的贡献率的主要来源。国际贸易对产业结构变动的贡献率为40.01%,国内居民消费水平对国际贸易变动的贡献率为18%。
展开▼
机译:The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model乡城人口迁移对我国居民消费增长动态影响的实证分析——基于变参数状态空间模型方法
机译:The Impacts of Margin Trading on Rate of Return and Volatility in the Stock Market: A Study Using the SVAR Model and Panel Regressions =融资对股价收益与波动的影响特征研究——基于SVAR模型与面板模型的实证分析