我国货物贸易进、出口依存度与人民币实际有效汇率的实证研究

摘要

This study carries the empirical analysis on import dependence and export dependence of trade in goods in China and RMB real effective exchange rate using cointegration and error correction model , though investigating the situation about the import and ex-port of trade in goods in China from 1981 to 2014 together with the change of RMB value . We find that RMB real effective exchange rate has the effect of short -term positive impact on the export dependence of trade in goods in China . The export dependence of trade in goods in China has the effect of short-term negative impact on RMB real effective exchange rate ,while the import dependence of trade in goods in China has the effect of short -term positive impact on RMB real effective exchange rate . In addition , the export dependence of trade in goods in China has the effect of long -term positive impact on RMB real effective exchange rate , while the import dependence of trade in goods in China has the effect of long -term negative impact on RMB real effective exchange rate .%本研究通过考察1981～2013年我国货物贸易进出口的状况和人民币币值的变动情况，利用协整和误差修正模型对我国货物贸易的进、出口依存度与人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系进行了实证分析，结果发现我国货物贸易的进口依存度对出口依存度存在长期的正向影响的效应，对人民币实际有效汇率则存在长期的负向影响的效应，而人民币实际有效汇率只对我国货物贸易的出口依存度存在影响的效应，且这种效应为短期的正向效应。