经前期处置下,研究管理者面对突发事件应该何时启动前期处置方案和应急预案的问题.在完全没有突发事件持续时阎信息的条件下,利用局内决策理论与方法构建了企业何时启动前期处置方案和应急预案的分阶段启动模型,并利用"竞争比"说明该方案的有效性.在此基础上,进一步通过数值分析表明分阶段启动应急预案的重要意义.%The increased number of natural disasters has disrupted social and economic progress. Minimizing the impact of these disasters can bring stability to society. Emergency response systems have played an important role in achieving this goal. Since the "SARS" crisis in the year 2003, China has begun to focus on building emergency response systems. A national contingency plan system was established in 2004 according to the "Classification" rule. China initially formed a main emergency plan system,constituted by national overall emergency response plans, specific contingency plans, department emergency plans, local emergency plans, and contingency plans for enterprises with large-scale activities.Existing literature has focused on the importance of contingency plans, the assessment of contingency plans, and approaches to improving emergency preparedness. Few studies have addressed problems associated with the activation of contingency plans when the public administration is disrupted by natural disasters. This paper investigates how managers activate contingency plans at the predisposal stage and potential problems that may arise from disruption by natural disasters at this stage. Case studies are conducted and our analysis results show that activating contingency plans at the pre-disposition stage is effective at dealing with public crises caused by natural disasters. A mathematical model is constructed to provide information on when to activate contingency plans in different phases.Decision theories and methods are used to help propose an activation program for contingency plans. The numerical analysis shows that competitive ratios can help assess the effectiveness of the proposed contingency programs.The first part discusses the general model of contingency plan activation and the importance of using the model to deal with emergencies. Activating the contingency plans at the pre-disposition plan can control and reduce the impact of unexpected events on society, and reduce the cost of emergency response. Moreover, activating contingency plans at this early stage allows decision makers to more effectively access and evaluate information on the emergency event. Plans executed at this stage can provide the basis for follow-up plans and enhance its enforceability.The second part proposes a mathematical model of contingency plan activation. Timely response to each emergency event is crucial to the control of damages. Follow-up costs also need to be considered when executing the contingency plan. The execution of contingency plans at the pre-disposal stage can control the emergency, and reduce follow-up costs and potential losses. Our findings show that emergency start-up costs can directly affect the initial response time to crises. High pre-disposal and emergency start-up costs can delay the initial response time. Conversely, low start-up costs can shorten the initial response time to emergency events.In general, the pre-disposal unit costs are very small and are much smaller than the unit time losses caused by unexpected events.Therefore, the pre-disposal program is often accompanied by unexpected events and the immediate impact of natural disasters (earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. ). Starting the pre-disposal program is strongly suggested based on the findings of this study.In summary, activating contingency plans in the pre-disposal stage is crucial to controlling the impact and costs of emergency events on society. Phased execution of contingency plans can help control the cost of managing emergencies and improve the effectiveness of response plans.
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