Study of the Activating and Countermanding Emergency Plans within the Unconventional Emergency by Stages

摘要

For the research on the unconventional emergency management, the trends of situation evolution and the emergency management plans by stages are taken as the starting point.Firstly, the judge-criterion of the situation evolution model is established on the situation similarity theory on the foundation of the intuitive fuzzy sets theory.Secondly, within the single unconventional emergency and the chain evolution model, the dynamic situation evolution model changing over time is established on the quantum transition theory and the dynamic theory. Further, the phased emergency management model, which includes timings for triggering and terminating the pie-incident, during-incident and post-incident management plans, is constructed by using the on-line decision making theory.Finally, the competitive ratio is introduced to explain the effectiveness of the emergency management, and the theories are verified by an example calculating.