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我国交通运输业能源强度影响因素研究

     

摘要

The accelerating urbanization process in China has led to an increased demand of energy use in the transportation sector, especially for the consumption of oil products. Compared with other sectors, the growth rate of energy use in the transportation sector has become the highest, thus challenging the task of energy consumption reduction in this sector, as set by the national government. The nature of the transportation sector is unique because of its supporting role and leading role for other sectors. Effective control of energy consumption by the transportation sector can lay foundation for other sectors, resulting in more and more energy input into the transportation sector to meet the increased demand of passengers and freight for energy consumption. In order to realize the national energy consumption reduction target, increasing energy efficiency in the transportation sector is critical.rnThe energy intensity indicator is measured by energy consumption per product, not per GDP. This paper combines index decomposition method with econometrics model to analyze the influencing factors of energy intensity of Chinese transportation sector from year 1985 to 2008. The two index decomposition methods used in this study are LMDI and Refined Laspeyres. The econometrics model Vector Auto-regression does not require theoretical assumptions among variables and is effective to explain relations among multi-variables.rnFirstly, the authors explain and measure all the data used in this paper. The existing energy statistics fails to provide data on the energy use of the transportation sector and that of each transportation mode. The authors make use of data about energy consumption per product to calculate the actual energy use of each transportation mode, and the energy intensity of each transportation mode. Secondly, based on the result of index decomposition the authors examine the influence of internal structure factor and efficiency factor on the total transportation energy intensity turbulence. This study also finds that the efficiency factor has a higher influence than the internal structure factor. Specifically speaking, the efficiency of air-flight and road transportation dominates the change of total energy intensity in this sector. External factors has also been analyzed using VAR model based on the assumption that more investment on transportation infrastructure would enhance energy efficiency and urbanization process and energy price fail to do the same.rnFinally, the government should accelerate the infrastructure construction like road pavement in both rural and urban areas, and adjust the structure of transportation mode to be more energy efficient at the same time. The extensive urbanization development should be checked, and the energy should be priced based on market supply and demand. Most importantly, the scientific and technological innovation should be encouraged.%为深入研究我国交通运输业能源强度居高不下的原因,本文分别利用LMDI和Refined Laspeyres指数分解法和宏观VAR计量模型,从内部和外部两个角度,对1985~2008年我国交通运输业能源强度的变动原因进行了实证分析,结果表明,交通运输业内部的结构变化和各交通子方式能源效率波动共同导致了整体行业能源强度的偏高,但效率因素的贡献度更大;就外部宏观经济因素而言,交通基础设施的发达有助于降低能源强度,但城市化进程却提高了能源强度,能源价格的上涨也未能起到降低交通运输业能源强度的作用.

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