粮食产量影响因素的实证分析与贡献率测算

摘要

利用1985—2008年中国农村统计年鉴的粮食生产数据,对财政投入、劳动力投入、农业机械总动力、粮食播种面积、有效灌溉率和化肥施用量对粮食产量的影响情况进行实证分析。结果表明：农业基础设施和粮食播种面积是影响粮食生产的关键因素,二者对粮食产量贡献率分别达到了41.9%和24.63%,但粮食播种面积与粮食产量之间相关性不明显;而财政投入、化肥施用量、机械动力对粮食产量影响相对较小;相反,农业劳动力与粮食产量之间还存在负相关关系。根据所得结论提出了相应的政策建议。%Applies the food production data of China Rural Statistical Yearbooks in 1985-2008 to analyze the impact factors on the grain yield from financial investment,labor input,the total power of farm machinery,grain sown area,the effective irrigation rate and chemical fertilizers.The results show that the agricultural infrastructure and sown area of grain are the most critical factors affecting food production,their contribution rates on the grain yield reaches 41.9% and 24.63% respectively,but the sown area of grain is of no obvious correlation with grain yield,and the financial inputs,chemical fertilizers and mechanical power are of relatively small impact on grain yield,on the contrary,there is negative correlation between agricultural labor and food production.The corresponding policy recommendations are proposed based on the conclusions.