基于VAR模型的汇率变化与中国进出口贸易关系的实证分析

摘要

Based on the theory related to the influence of changes of the RMB exchange rate on import and export trade, this paper chooses the quarterly data of RMB exchange rate and import&export trade from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2014. By building the VECM model, the long-term elasticity of imports and exports with exchange rate is examined from the perspective of long-term equilibrium, and the short-term adjustment speed of returning to equilibrium path after deviating from it through the error correction mechanism is investigated. According to the results of the analysis, this paper put forward some suggestions on how to promote the RMB exchange rate into balance, and the healthy development of China's foreign trade.%基于人民币汇率变化对进出口贸易影响的理论分析，选取2005年第4季度到2014年第1季度人民币汇率与进出口贸易的季度数据，经过平稳性、协整关系等计量经济学检验，建立 VECM 模型，从长期均衡的角度分析了汇率与进出口贸易总额的长期弹性，并通过误差纠正机制考查了偏离均衡路径后回复到均衡路径的短期调整速度。根据实证分析结果提出了促进中国对外贸易健康发展的相关建议。