基于PSR模型的塔里木河流域生态脆弱性评价

摘要

Quantitative evaluation of the ecological vulnerability for the Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Xinjiang from2005 to 2015 was achieved through the combination of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP).The distribution and dynamics of ecological vulnerability over the decade were analyzed after the establishment of evaluation system.The results show that the ecological vulnerability in the TRB during the time of 2005-2015 is at Heavy levelⅢwith the average value of 0.538, and shows a continuously rising trend.The ecological vulnerability synthetic index (EVSI), based on the different levels of ecological vulnerability over the time, has a minimum of 1.14 in 2005 as well as a maximum of 3.69 in 2015, and increases significantly with a fluctuation after reaching a peak of 3.07 in 2009.In addition, the ecological vulnerability in this basin displays a noticeable spatial distribution, which are strongly vulnerable areas mainly in the east with significantly increasing vulnerability and lightly vulnerable areas in the west at the transition stage of increase.%采用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)评价框架,结合模糊层次分析法定量评价塔里木河流域2005—2015年生态脆弱性,分析其时空分布和动态变化.研究结果表明:塔里木河流域2005—2015年生态脆弱性指数平均值为0.538,处于重度脆弱Ⅲ级;生态脆弱性持续增加,综合指数最小值为2005年的1.14,2009年到达一个峰值3.07,2015年达到最大值3.69;各地区的综合指数都处于2～3范围,总体呈现由西向东递增趋势,流域生态脆弱性空间分布呈现西低东高状态;研究时段内高度脆弱地区的脆弱性增加显著,而低度脆弱地区脆弱性变化不显著,处于中间过渡阶段.