以河南省人粮关系变化研究为切入点,从省域层面对河南省1999-2014年的人粮关系变化情况进行分析,从地市层面对人粮关系时空变化及原因进行研究,为全省及时调整和制定粮食生产战略、有针对性地制定耕地保护对策提供了基础依据.研究结果表明:(1)全省的耕地承载能力总体呈上升趋势,1999-2014年耕地承载率由0.87降低为0.69,全省粮食仍然自给有余,对国家粮食的贡献率并未降低且有所提高;(2)区域层面人粮关系差异显著,平顶山、济源、洛阳、三门峡、郑州5个地市的粮食产量不能满足消费需求,其他13个地市粮食自给有余.总体来看,河南省的粮食生产总体处于安全状态,对国家粮食的贡献率保持增长态势,但是区域差异明显,对承载率增大的地市应加强耕地保护,以遏制人粮关系恶化趋势.%From the perspective of the variation of man-grain relationship,this paper analyzes the change of man-grain relationship in Henan Province from 1999 to 2014 at the provincial level,and researches the temporal and spatial variation of the man-grain relationship and its causes at the urban level,and provides the basis for timely adjusting and formulating the strategy of grain production of the whole province,and the basis for the targeted measures of cultivated land protection.The results shows that:(1) The entire provincial cultivated land carrying capacity shows a rising tendency as a whole,and the rate of the cultivated land carrying capacity has reduced from 0.87 to 0.69 during 1999 to 2014,with a surplus,the entire provincial grain supplyare self-sufficient,,and its contribution rate to the national food supply did not fall but increased;(2) the man-grain relationship has the significant regional differences,and in Pingdingshan,Jiyuan,Luoyang,Sanmenxia and Zhengzhou,the food production cannot meet the demand of consumption,and other 13 cities are self-sufficient and have achieved a surplus.In general,the grain production of Henan province is in a safe condition,and its contribution rate to the national food supply maintains a growing tendency,however,the regional differences are obvious,the cities whose carrying rate increases should strengthen farmland protection,and curb the deterioration tendency of man-grain relationship.
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