天津市城镇化的生态环境安全响应与驱动研究

摘要

运用"城镇化的生态环境安全响应"概念,借助响应模型,对1995—2015年天津市城镇化与生态环境的响应关系进行实证研究,并分析其响应关系演变的驱动因素.结果表明:1)1995—2015年天津市城镇化综合水平从0.246上升到0.736,城镇化发展态势良好.生态环境综合指数呈现先下降后稳定上升的"U型"变化曲线,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线定律.2)天津市生态环境对城镇化的响应呈现明显阶段性特征,逐渐由不安全响应的"胁迫"态势趋向安全响应的"促进"态势.其中,生态环境压力和状态也遵循着由不安全响应的"胁迫"态势趋向安全响应的"促进"态势特征,而生态环境抗逆对城镇化的发展始终具有安全响应的特征.3)城镇化的生态环境安全响应关系演变的主要驱动因素是环境规制强度和资源利用水平.%Using the concept of ecological environment security response of urbanization and with the help of response model,this paper presents an empirical study on the relationship between urbanization and ecological response in Tianjin Municipality from 1995 to 2015 and analyzes the driving factors of the evolution of response relationship.From 1995 to 2015,the comprehensive level of urbanization in Tianjin Municipality has increased from 0.246 to 0.736,meaning a positive trend of urbanization.The index of comprehensive level of ecological environment showed a U-shaped curve since it steadily increased after decreasing firstly.The characteristic of this change was in accordance with the Environmental Kuznets Curve.The response of the ecological environment to urbanization in Tianjin Municipality showed obvious stage characteristics,and tended to go response gradually from " coercion" situation of unsafe response to the " promoting " situation of safety response.Among them,the pressure and state of ecological environment also followed the characteristic of going gradually from " coercion" situation of unsafe response to the "promoting" situation of safety response,while the stress resistance of ecological environment always had the characteristics of safety response to the development of urbanization.The intensity of environmental regulation and the level of resource utilization were the main driving factors for the evolution of relationship between urbanization and ecological environment security response.