基于Vague集的工程项目发包模式选择决策研究

摘要

针对工程项目发包模式选择影响因素众多、过程复杂、不确定性等特点,将其视为一个模糊多属性群决策问题.在分析并确定项目发包模式决策属性集的基础上,提出基于Vague集的多属性群决策方法,采用Vague集中真假隶属度和未知度描述对发包模式的满足/不满足程度和犹豫程度,解决发包模式优选过程中的模糊性和不确定性问题,引入Vague值比较的可能度概念,利用可能度方法对发包模式进行排序、优选,为项目业主的决策提供有效支持.工程实例表明该决策方法是可行的和合理的.%The selection of project delivery method is considered to be a question of fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making due to the abundance of influencing factors, complex process, and its uncertainty. Based on the analysis and selection of decision attribute for project delivery methods, a vague set-based method of multi-attribute group decision-making is proposed. The membership, non-membership and unknown values of vague set are adopted to size the satisfaction, dissatisfaction and irresolution degree towards project delivery methods. In this way the fuzziness and uncertainty in the optimization process is eliminated. The notion of possibility degree for the comparison between two vague values is introduced to rank and optimize project delivery methods, thus helping employers make sound decisions. A case study proves the decision-making method is feasible and rational.