人口老龄化对技术进步的影响

摘要

人口老龄化是影响技术进步的重要因素,然而人口老龄化究竟会产生正向亦或负向影响,学术界并没有达成共识.采用全要素生产率作为衡量技术进步的指标,首先基于DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国31个省份的全要素生产率及其分解因素进行测算,然后基于省级面板数据对人口老龄化对全要素生产率的影响效应进行实证检验.结果发现,人口老龄化对中国全要素生产率产生负向的影响,即人口老龄化会阻碍全要素生产率的提高.最后剖析了人口老龄化阻碍技术进步的可能原因,提出了弱化人口老龄化负效应和促进中国技术进步的对策建议.%In this paper, total factor productivity and its factors of China's 31 provinces were firstly calculated by using DEA-Malmquist index approach.Then China's provincial data was used to empirically research for the impact of population aging on total factor productivity.The calculation of total factor productivity showed that annual growth rate of China's total factor productivity from 2000 to 2013 was 2.5%, and technological progress was the main drive improving total factor productivity while the effect of technological efficiency was limited.The results of empirical research found that population aging had a negative effect on total factor productivity, namely, population aging would restrict the improvement of total factor productivity.In addition, the results of empirical research indicated that GDP growth rate, factor inputs ratio, R&D inputs and openness had negative effects on total factor productivity, while industrial structure had a positive effect on total factor productivity.