紧约束条件下中国粮食安全面临的挑战与对策

摘要

The natural conditions and the balance of supply and demand of food production are one of the important factors that influence Chinese food security. China faces dual challenges of tight balance and dynamic fluctuation. The arable land area, population growth, the change of demand structure and the ecological environment affordability factors are internal causes of tight balance of the grain production. The land occupation in the process of urbanization, outflow of rural labor force, comparative advantage of agricultural products, and grain imports are the market factors increased the Chinese grain supply imbalance. To alleviate the pressure of grain dynamic imbalance, we should stick to the "red line" of arable land strictly, actively adjust the policy of improving agriculture, and construct the new modern food security system suitable for China's economy development.%粮食生产的自然条件约束与供求平衡问题，是影响中国粮食安全的重要因素之一。目前中国粮食供求面临静态“紧平衡”和供求动态波动的双重挑战。可耕地面积、人口增长、需求结构变化和生态环境承受力等因素是导致粮食生产紧平衡的内在原因；城市化进程中的占地、打工潮引起的农村劳动力外流、农产品生产比较利益、粮食进口等因素是加剧中国粮食供求动态失衡的市场性原因。缓解粮食动态失衡带来的压力，既需要坚持耕地红线，也要积极调整强农惠农政策，构建适合中国经济发展的现代粮食安全新体系。