中国区域间经济波动与经济增长时滞效应分析

摘要

为清晰地了解经济波动的动态影响过程及机理，通过建立多项式分布滞后模型，对我国不同区域经济波动对经济增长的滞后期进行比较分析。结果表明：全国、东部、中部、西部、东北的经济波动对经济增长的作用期限分别是3年、2年、3年、5年、3年，且对经济增长作用分别表现为促进、促进、抑制、抑制、促进。从各期影响来看，除中部一直表现为抑制经济发展外，其他地区普遍表现为从滞后2年后对经济的作用由促进转变为抑制，之后效应逐渐减弱。所以，不同区域应该充分利用彼此间经济波动的时期差，做好相应的准备，努力克服经济波动的减损效应。%For a clear understanding of the dynamic effect process and mechanism of economic fluctuations, the lag period of economic growth in different regions in China is analyzed by establishing a polynomial distributed lags model. The results show that the effect on economic growth period under economic fluctuation in the whole nation, the east, the middle, the west and the north-east is respectively 3 years,2 years,3 years,5 years and 3 years,and the effect on economic growth is to accelerate,accelerate,restrain,restrain and accelerate. Taking the effect of various stages into consideration,the other regions are transforming from accelerating to restraining after the lag of 2 years,then the effect gradually weakened,besides the middle has always been restraining. Therefore,different regions should make full use of the time difference between each others' periods of economic fluctuations,make corresponding preparations and strive to overcome the impairment effect.