河北燕山山区径流变化规律研究

摘要

运用河北燕山迎风区与背风区主要代表水文站1956-2005年的实测径流资料,采用Mann-Kendall统计检验方法和小波分析法来分析研究燕山山区径流的突变性及其周期性变化的趋势.结果表明:近50年来,燕山山区的迎风区与背风区年径流量均出现逐渐减少的趋势;其中背风区突变主要发生在1972、1985年,迎风区则主要在1977年发生一次较大的突变;且背风区与迎风区年径流序列均主要存在25～32,5～8年的变化周期.利用降雨和径流的双累积曲线,定量分析降雨变化和人类活动对径流的影响贡献率,得出在变化期内,人类活动和降雨对径流变化的影响贡献率分别为67.86％和32.14％,说明人类的活动是1978-2005年径流减少的主要影响因素.%Based on the observed runoff data from 1956 to 2005 of the main representative hydrological station in Hebei Yanshan windward and leeward areas,the Mann-Kendall test and the wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the mutational and cyclical change trend of runoff in Yanshan Mountains.The results showed that during the recent 50 years,the annual runoff flow occurred gradual reduction trend in windward and leeward areas.The mutation of the leeward area mainly took place in 1972 and 1985,but the windward zone took a major mutation in 1977.The main change cycle of annual runoff series were 25～32 and 5～8 years in leeward and windward area respectively.Using double mass curve of rainfall and runoff,we quantitatively analyzed the impact contribution rate of rainfall changes and human activities on runoff change.It is concluded that during the change period,the influence contribution rate of human activities and precipitation change on runoff were 67.86％ and 32.14％ respectively,showing that human activities are the main factors to influence runoff reduction during 1978-2005.