城市快速路交通事件影响范围预测模型

摘要

To study the impact of traffic incidents on urban expressway, the forecasting model of traffic incident influence is established on MCTM model. With regard to the metastable phenomenon of urban expressway traffic flow, the traffic flow state of metastable region is simulated in this model. Besides, the impact of traffic incidents on the main traffic flow features of the cells is considered and the setting of the cells is adjusted with the location of traffic incidents. And the length of the incident is selected as an evaluation indicator of traffic incident influence. Finally, based on the traffic incident data of Beijing partial road network, the model parameters are calibrated and the influence of one traffic incident is analyzed. The results show that the trends of the simulation data are basically the same with the measured data and the error is within an acceptable range. This model can clearly reflect the state of the traffic flow at different times of the individual sections, and it can determine the traffic incident influence of urban expressway effectively.%为研究交通事件对城市快速路交通流的影响，在对MCTM模型进行改进的基础上，建立快速路交通事件影响范围预测模型。该模型针对城市快速路交通流的亚稳态现象，模拟亚稳态区域的交通流状态；同时考虑交通事件对元胞主要特征参数的影响，并结合事件发生的不同位置，对元胞设置进行调整；最后提出事件影响长度的概念，并将其作为交通事件影响范围的评价指标。以北京市局部道路网为研究对象，结合交通事件的相关数据，对该模型进行了参数标定和实例分析。结果表明，仿真数据的变化趋势与实测数据基本一致，且误差在可接受范围内。模型能清晰地反映出不同时刻各个路段的交通流状态，可有效地确定城市快速路交通事件的影响范围。