基于交叉口冲突消除的区域疏散交通管理研究——以长春市中心区疏散交通管理为例

摘要

This paper aims at the study of the regional evacuation traffic management of mass vehicles under unconventional emergencies.Based on the cell transmission model（CTM）,this paper presents a system-optimum dynamic traffic assignment model which can effectively investigate the characteristics of randomness and dynamics of evacuation flowing spatial and temporal distribution.Furthermore,the bottleneck problem which often occurs at intersections during evacuation process is analyzed and an evacuation traffic management optimization model incorporating the crossing elimination strategy is presented.Combining the road network data and population prediction data in the 2020,this paper conducts an empirical study of evacuation traffic management at the central parts in Changchun city of China.The results show that this model can provide effective support for evacuation traffic managers＇ decision-making.%针对非常规突发事件下区域大规模机动车辆疏散的交通运行管理进行了研究。以元胞传输模型为理论基础,针对疏散交通流时空分布的高度随机、动态特性,建立了区域疏散系统最优动态交通分配模型。进一步重点分析了平面交叉口在疏散过程中的瓶颈问题,整合了交叉口流向冲突消除的交通管理策略,构建了基于交叉口冲突消除的疏散交通管理优化模型。最后以长春市中心区路网和2020年人口预测数据为依托进行实证分析,结果表明该模型能够为疏散交通管理者的决策提供有效支撑。