针对外汇市场上形态技术分析有效性的学术研究引起的争议,提出了复杂技术形态信息含鼍的度最方法.扩展了技术形态的定义,改进了参数的选择,开辟了检验技术形态有效性的新视角.实证研究采用外汇市场上20种货币对的收盘价数据,通过对比基于技术形态的条件收益率与非条件收益率在经验分布上的差异,揭示复杂技术形态是否具有可用于预测的额外信息.实证结果显示,复杂技术形态可以提供显著的信息含量.%Due to the dispute in academic research surrounding the effectiveness of pattern analysis in the foreign exchange markets, a method to gauge the information of complicated pattern analysis was proposed. The original models of pattern definitions and parametric selection were improved. This opened up a new perspective of the research on the effectiveness of pattern analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily returns to conditional distribution dependent on specific technical patterns, it was found that most of the patterns provide incremental information and may have some practical value. This conclusion was reached based on twenty pieces of exchange rate data from the foreign exchange market. It was proven that some technical patterns do exist which can provide significant information.
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