面向任务的驱逐舰作战效能评估方法研究

摘要

In order to solve the problems of operational effectiveness evaluations oriented to combat missions of de -stroyers, coupling relationship of targets and confidence of evaluation experts , the method of operational effective-ness evaluations oriented to combat missions was put forward .Based on the ship work break down structure (SWBS), directed toward required operational capabilities (ROC), this method established the coupling evalua-tion index system oriented to the operational effectiveness evaluation of destroyers by the evaluation index hierarchy metric model, and then tested the sensitivity and coupling of this index system .Through the authority of experts and different authority domains , confidence analytic hierarchy process ( CAHP ) method determining different confi-dence intervals was put forward to deal with the confidence problems of the evaluation experts .The operational ef-fectiveness index of different combat missions was obtained for three schemes of a certain guided missile destroyer which showed the feasibility and effectiveness of this evaluation method .This method may also serve as a reference for operational effectiveness evaluations of different warships .%为解决驱逐舰面向各种作战任务的效能评估、指标耦合性和评价专家信度问题，提出了面向任务的驱逐舰作战效能评估方法。该方法基于船舶工程分解结构（ ship work breakdown structure ， SWBS ）理论，以驱逐舰作战任务分解清单（ required operational capabilities ， ROC）为导向，通过评价指标层级度量模式，建立了针对驱逐舰作战效能的耦合评估指标体系，并对该评估指标体系进行了敏感性、耦合性测试。针对评价专家的信度问题，提出信度层次分析法（ confidence analytic hierarchy process ，CAHP ），按照专家权威性和权威领域判定专家在不同置信区间内的置信度。对某型导弹驱逐舰3个设计方案的作战效能进行评估，得到各作战任务下作战效能指数，验证了所提出评估方法的可行性和有效性。研究方法对于各类舰船作战效能评估具有参考价值。