Objective: Research on the spatial distribution of the elderly from 2000 to 2020 in order to provide scientific basis for Guiyang to deal with the aging. Methods: We collected the census data of Guiyang of 2000 and 2010. The population estimation models were used for community demographic estimates and projections of 2014 and 2020. The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used for the spatial distribution of the elderly in 2000, 2010, 2014, 2020 respectively. Results: It was not yet aging of Guiyang in 2000 but it was entirely in 2010. The elderly gathered in the center area of Guiyang in 2000. The number and density of the aged were gathered in the center of Guiyang mainly in the North of the city in 2010. It was entered into moderate aging in 2014 and the distribution of the aged was the same as in 2010. it is predicted that there will be a highly aging in the northern edge by 2020, and the dwelling points will be little changed compared with in 2014 but it will present a trend of urban-rural inversion. Conclusion: It has entered into an aging population in Guiyang at fast speed. The number of the aged is gathered highly in the center, there is an obvious trend of urban and rural inversion.%目的:了解并预测2000-2020年贵阳市老年人口的数量、比重、密度及空间分布特征,为贵阳市应对人口老龄化提供参考意见.方法:收集2000年、2010年贵阳市(六区三县一市)人口普查数据,对2014年和2020年的社区人口采用不同人口估算模型进行估算与预测,描述贵阳市各年份老年人口数量、比重和密度等分布特征;采用空间自相关分析2000、2010、2014及2020年贵阳市社区老年人口数量、比重和密度局部自相关性.结果:2000年贵阳市还未进入老龄化,至2010年已全面成为老龄化城市;2000年贵阳市老年人口聚集在中心城区,2010年老年人口数量和老年人口密度空间分布仍集中在中心城区,且老年人口比重空间分布主要聚集在城市北部;2014年全市进人中度老龄化,老年人口分布和2010年相似;预测2020年城市北部边缘区域进入高度老龄化,聚集点和2014年变化不大;但与之前相比老年人口分布可能呈现"城乡倒置".结论:贵阳市已全面进入老龄化,且发展进程快,到2020年老年人口城乡倒置现象明显,但城市中心老年人口绝对数量较大.
展开▼
