降水系统对FY-2F降水临近预报可预报性影响分析

摘要

针对静止气象卫星降水临近预报中可预报性差和预报精度不高的问题.选用我国静止气象卫星FY-2F的4926幅数据,通过研究了降水临近预报的可预报性,分析了5个典型降水系统对可预报性的影响.结果表明:FY-2F卫星1 h降水预报的偏差(Bias)、相关性(Corr)、均方根误差(RMSE)、检测概率(POD)、虚警率(FAR)和关键成功指数(CSI)分别为-0.08、0.66、0.75 mm/h、0.55、0.28、0.46,2 h降水预报的分别为-0.19、0.42、1.074 mm/h、0.42、0.46、0.31.验证了不同降水系统及发展阶段的降水临近预报精度差异大,为将来利用后续风云系列静止气象卫星进行降水临近预报提供借鉴.%Aiming at the problem of poor predictability and low prediction precision in the precipitation near forecast of static meteorological satellite, in this paper, 4 926 data from China geostationary meteorological satellite FY-2F are used to study the predictability of nowcasting,and to analyze the influence of five typical precipitation systems on predictability.The results show that the deviation of precipitation forecast of FY-2F satellite 1 hour(Bias), coelation(Corr), root mean square error(RMSE), detection probability(POD)and false alarm rate(FAR)and the critical success index(CSI)were -0.08, 0.66, 0.75 mm/h, 0.55, 0.28, 0.46 respectively, and 2 hours of water drop forecast were -0.19,0.42,1.07 mm/h,0.42,0.46,0.31 respectively.It proves that the accuracy of precipitation nowcasting is different from different precipitation systems and development stages, which provides a reference for future precipitation forecast by Fengyun geostationary meteorological satellites in the future.