利用1978—2008年广西GDP及一般预算收入数据，把财政体制作为虚拟变量，构建五线段回归计量模型，结果发现，广西在财力上对上级的依赖程度加强了，但财政收入尚未形成稳定的增长势头。结合横向比较得出结论，广西发展相对滞后的原因主要是工业化率不高，必须把提高工业化率作为主要任务，不宜过早加快发展第三产业，应微调财政体制，对增值税增长分成比例分类确定，以利于鼓励和照顾不发达地区发展工业。% By using the data of general budget revenue and GDP of Guangxi between 1978 and 2008, the paper takes thefinancial system as a virtual variable and establishes a five-segment regression econometric model. The result shows,with increasing dependence on the superior financial support, the financial revenue of Guangxi still could not maintain a steady growth. The peer-to-peer comparison discovers that the eco-nomic stagnancy mainly lies in the low industrialization of local areas. Therefore, in order to encourage and prop up the local industrial development, measures must be taken to give priority to local industrialization, to curb untimely development of tertiary industry, to trim the financial and fiscal system and to clarify the classifications of VAT growth rates.
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