中国碳排放强度的驱动因素分析及PSR评价模型

摘要

The paper is based on the study of the current situation of China's energy use and pollutant e-missions. It first analyzes the driving factors of carbon emission intensity by approaches of regional carbon emissions estimates method,principal component analysis,multiple linear regression method. The conclusion is:urbanization rate,foreign trade dependence degree and the per GDP index have great impacts on carbon emissions intensity. Then we establish a“Pressure-state-Response(PSR)evaluation model”through entropy and the composite index method,and select the carbon dioxide emissions intensity in 5 provinces of China for regional appraisal,and eventually put forward countermeasures and suggestions.%针对我国能源使用和污染物排放现状，首先通过区域碳排放测算、主成分分析、多元线性回归等方法，研究影响我国二氧化碳排放强度的驱动因素，并最终得出城市化率、对外贸易依存度、人均GDP指标对碳排放强度影响较大的结论，然后通过熵权法和综合指数法建立了“压力—状态—响应（PSR）评价模型”，并选取了中国东、中、西部五个省市的二氧化碳排放强度进行评价分区研究，并最终提出相应的对策和建议。