国际资源价格冲击对中国宏观经济的影响研究

摘要

Based on the monthly data from January,2000 to March,2013 in China and the SVAR model, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of the price volatility of international oil and gas on China’s macro economy. The result shows that:(1)the international oil price fluctuations obviously affect China’s macro economy. The rise in international oil prices will boost CPI index in China,and lead to domestic monetary policy tightening,and thus will restrain the economic growth;(2)international gas prices will boost the rise of China’s CPI index,but its impacts on China’s monetary policy and macro economy are not obvi-ous;(3)China faces serious imported inflation pressure;the effect of international oil price fluctuations on China’s macro economy is greater than that of the international natural gas prices.%基于中国2000年1月到2013年3月的月度数据，采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型实证分析了国际油价和国际天然气价格波动对我国宏观经济（物价指数、货币政策和经济增长率）的冲击效应，结果发现：（1）国际油价波动对我国宏观经济的冲击效应较为明显。国际油价上涨会推高我国物价指数，导致国内货币政策趋于紧缩，由此对我国经济增长产生抑制作用；（2）国际天然气价格会促使我国CPI指数上涨，而对我国货币政策和宏观经济的影响不明显；（3）中国面临较大的输入性通胀压力，国际油价波动对中国宏观经济的冲击要大于国际天然气价格的冲击。