语言趋同与国际贸易——基于修正重力模型的实证

摘要

The gravity model is often utilized as one accounting for the trade volume. This paper focuses on discussing the commonality of language as a dummy variable in the model. With this model, the paper analyzes the trade relationship between Canada and its trade partners, and between China and its trade partners, based on the variations caused by the proportion of English- as-L1 populations versus that of English-as-L2 populations. The results show that the proportion of Englishas-L2 populations plays a more important role than that of English-as-L1 populations in the bilateral trade between Canada and its partners, and between China and its partner as well. Considering the specified errors in this model, it can also get the same results.%重力模型是衡量各国间贸易量的常用模型，本文在原有模型基础上做出修正，主要讨论语言趋同对国际贸易量的影响。本文利用修正的重力模型考察了中国和加拿大两国的情况，利用调查数据中两国把英语作为第一语言的人口比例以及把英语作为第二语言的人口比例作为虚拟变量引入模型。研究结果显示，在中加两国与主要贸易伙伴的国际贸易中，英语作为第二语言的重要性要高于英语作为第一语言的国家。即使考虑模型的设定误差，结果也是一致的。