我国第三产业发展路径研究

摘要

With the economic development, China has become a country with considerable income. Being in the mid-late stage of industrialization and facing a so-called middle-income-trap challenge, China is in an urgent need to speed up the transformation of economic growth mode. It should expand tertiary industry drastically to form new incentives of growth and relieve the structural contradiction so that the sustainable development of economy can be facilitated. This article sets out to analyze the developmental trajectories and characteristics of China’s tertiary industry, consider its problems and expound its mechanism. Then, by using the Logistic curve it predicts the developing path of China’s tertiary industry. Finally it gives some basic ideas about developing China’s tertiary industry in light of some foreign countries’ experience.%我国经济发展进入中等偏上收入国家行列，处于工业化中后期阶段，面临着“中等收入陷阱”的挑战，迫切需要加快经济发展方式转变。在产业结构优化升级中要大力发展第三产业，形成新的增长动力和缓解结构性矛盾，以利于经济的可持续发展。本文分析我国第三产业发展轨迹和特征，探讨第三产业发展中存在的问题，阐述大力发展第三产业的机理，运用 Logistic 曲线预测我国第三产业产值发展变化趋势，最后在借鉴国际第三产业发展路线多元化的基础上，提出我国第三产业发展的基本思路。