运用蒙特卡洛模拟城市供水网络可靠性实例分析

摘要

为研究城市供水网络可靠性,以日本宫城县仙南及仙盐地区供水网络为研究对象,运用GIS软件将供水网络和假想地震结合,用蒙特卡洛模拟计算供水网络的到达率.结果表明,该树形结构供水网络从水源到各需水点到达率较低,且需水点距离水源越远,到达率越低.根据以上结果及树形网络结构上游管道损坏可导致下游需水点断水的特点,提出在关键节点增加6条管道的方案改善供水网络结构,使到达率提高.%In order to evaluate the reliability of urban water supply network in Sennan and Senen area which located in Miyagi prefecture of Japan, the GIS software was applied to overlay the network with scenario earthquake and Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to calculate the reachability. The result indicates tree-shape network performed low reachability from water source to water demand node, the reachability decreased sharply with increase of the length between demand node and water source. Based on the result and feature of tree-shape network,6 links between key facilities were added to improve the reliability.