犯罪统计：刑事政策定量研究的基础——兼评美国两大犯罪统计模式

摘要

The development of criminology gives the research of crime statistics a push. In return, the development of crime statistics supports various criminological theories. In America, the UCR and NCVS deploy different methodologies and have different characteristics. They provide firm graphics of crime re-ports to researchers and criminal justice departments. Our national criminal policy research focuses on the quantitative research and ignores the quantitive research. Adopting the positive effects of America's two crime statistics models and building our own national crime reports are the possible way to make the crimi-nal policy research more scientific-alike.%犯罪学的发展催生了犯罪统计研究，犯罪统计的研究成果也为犯罪学的发展提供了基础资料。在美国，以UCR和NCVS为代表的两种犯罪统计模式运用不同的统计方法，为学者、政府警务部门执法提供了科学可靠的犯罪情况报告。由于犯罪统计数据的缺乏，我国刑事政策研究偏重定性分析而忽视定量研究，借鉴美国的两种犯罪统计模式经验，建立本土化的全国犯罪统计，注重定量与定性研究相结合，是使刑事政策最终走向科学化的重要基础。