现实生育水平与意愿生育水平的差异研究--基于河南省城乡居民的调查数据

摘要

Relying upon the six censuses and the survey on fertility level and fertility desire at five typical cities in Henan province,this paper has done research on observed fertility level and expected fertility level in both urban and rural areas.The conclusion shows that:both in urban and rural areas,it is common that the observed fertility level is lower than the alternative level.Under the circumstances of low fertility level,it is a more common phenomenon that the observed fertility level is lower than willingness in urban areas,and the constraint of breeding cost is the main reason.In fact,most citizens in county and villages realized the ideal to have two kids.Birth mode of urban women is with modern character;at the same time,it is experiencing transitions,from the traditional to modern,in county and village areas.These results could be referenced as a tool to the oncoming adjustment of birth policy.%借助于第六次人口普查和在河南省5个代表性地市开展的生育水平和生育意愿调查，对城乡居民现实生育水平和意愿生育水平进行探究。研究表明，城乡居民现实生育水平已低于更替水平；城市低生育水平条件下，实际生育水平低于生育意愿的情况更为常见，孩子成本的约束是导致未实现的生育的主要原因，而县城和农村绝大多数居民实现了两个子女的理想；城市妇女生育模式已具备现代型特征，县城和农村生育模式正由传统型走向现代型。严格的生育政策逐渐淡出，逐步放开二孩生育限制，将是适应人口发展形势的战略之举。