人民币升值降低了中国的贸易顺差吗？--基于汇改后季度面板数据的实证研究

摘要

本文采用汇改后中国对6个主要经济区域的面板数据进行实证研究，结果表明，人民币实际有效汇率升值的确导致了中国贸易收支的恶化，但是人民币实际有效汇率并不是影响我国贸易收支的唯一变量，中国的实际收入增加也会导致我国贸易收支恶化，中国实际GDP上升1%导致中国贸易顺差减少0.0835%；贸易伙伴国实际收入的增加则会改善我国贸易收支，贸易伙伴国GDP上升1%导致中国贸易顺差增加0.138%。%This paper adopts panel data of China versus six major economic regions since the exchange rate reform to conduct an empirical research. The results suggest that the real effective exchange rate (REER) of RMB appreciation exactly leads to the deterioration of China’s trade balance. However,REER of RMB is not the only variable influenc-ing the trade balance of China, and the increase in China’s real income can also result in the deterioration of China’s trade balance, and China’s trade surplus reduces by 0.0835%when its real GDP rises by 1%;the increase in the trad-ing partners’ real income can improve China’s trade balance, and China’s trade surplus increases by 0.138%when trading partners’GDP rises by 1%.