中国原油进口需求主要受国际油价影响吗？

摘要

In order to study whether China will largely raise its crude oil import when the international oil price is at a low ebb, this paper builds a VAR model to do the analysis and takes the price, demand and effective exchange rate into consideration,based on the theoretical model of China's crude oil demand. The study finds that the fluctuation of China's crude oil import demand is not determined by the fluctuations of the international oil price,while it is main-ly determined by China's economic growth. Secondly, the fluctuation of RMB effective exchange rate also has a great influence on China's crude oil import demand. China's economic performance is an important factor beyond the crude oil demand itself. And the fluctuation of the international oil price is not a main factor that affects China's crude oil de-mand.%为了研究国际油价低谷期间中国是否会大幅增加原油进口，本文以构建的中国原油需求理论模型为基础，选用影响原油的价格因素、需求因素、有效汇率因素进行VAR建模分析。研究发现：中国原油进口需求波动并不取决于国际油价波动，而主要由中国经济增长水平决定，其次人民币有效汇率波动也在某种程度上影响到中国原油进口需求。中国的经济表现成为除原油需求本身之外的重要影响因素，国际油价波动因素并不是中国原油需求波动的主要原因。