The China-USA trade dispute in 2018 and the continued interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve have negatively impacted Chinese economy.However,the rise of labor productivity is the root cause of the rise of Chi-na′s foreign trade.The influence of China-USA trade disputes on China is limited.Domestically,relying on real estate and infrastructure investment to drive economic growth is not sustainable,and the growth of advanced manufacturing investment is expected to stabilize.The increase of high-end group income level promotes consumption upgrade.There are big investment opportunities in high-end consumption and high-end manufacturing.Under the background of popula-tion aging,China has entered the era of stock economy and led to the industrial differentiation.In this context,the tra-ditional industry leader is still worthy to be valued,and there are structural investment opportunities.Emerging indus-tries have systemic opportunities.The macroeconomic policy of 2018 should adhere to the"bottom line thinking"and seek improvement in stability.%2018年的中美贸易纷争以及美联储继续加息,对我国经济的影响偏负面;但劳动生产率上行是我国外贸崛起的根本原因,中美贸易纷争对我国经济的影响有限.从国内来看,依靠房地产和基建投资拉动经济增长不可持续,先进制造业投资增速有望回稳;高端群体收入水平的提高拉动消费升级;高端消费和高端制造业领域有较大投资机会.人口老龄化背景下我国步入存量经济主导时代,并导致行业分化,在此背景下,传统行业龙头仍值得看好,该行业存在结构性投资机会;新兴行业则存在系统性机会.2018年宏观经济政策的把握应坚持"底线思维"与稳中求进.
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