本文在对中国天然气系统结构和反馈关系分析的基础上,建立中国天然气供需系统动力学模型,并提出一种改进的Logistic模型求解方法对中国天然气产量进行预测,然后将产量预测值输入系统动力学模型中,通过改变模型中的部分参数,设置了7种情景对中国天然气的需求量及消费结构进行仿真模拟.结果表明:中国天然气产量峰值将出现在2038年左右,峰值产量约为2800亿立方米;随着经济的不断发展以及城镇化的不断深入,中国天然气需求量将逐年稳步增长,到2035年将达到3600~4500亿立方米之间;在消费结构方面,城市燃气仍将是天然气消费的第一大户,其后依次是工业燃料、天然气发电和天然气化工;此外,相较于人口增长,经济发展在促进天然气需求量增长中仍起主导作用,而城镇化对城市燃气的影响较为明显,天然气利用技术的提升可有效降低天然气消费总量.%Based on the analysis of the structure and feedback relation of China's natural gas supply-demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. The natural gas production is set as an input variable of the model, and is forecasted by the improved logistic model in solving method. In order to simulate the total de-mand and consumption structure of China natural gas, we set seven scenarios by means of changing some of the parameters of the model. Results shows that the peak of natural gas production in China will occur in about 2038, and the production peak is expected to reach 2800 billion cubic meters. With the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of urbanization, the total demand of China natural gas will steadily increase year by year, and will reach an interval from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. What's more, in terms of con-sumption structure, urban gas will be still the first large consumption sector of natural gas, followed by industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the promotion of natural gas demand growth, and the impact of urbanization on urban gas is obvious, the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
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