基于灰色聚类法的水利枢纽灌区PPP项目风险评价研究

摘要

基于水利枢纽灌区PPP项目的一般特点及其特殊性,提出不同责任主体的6个风险一级指标、25个风险二级指标的风险评价体系,通过AHP法确定各级风险指标权重值,运用灰色聚类法中的三角白化权函数的评估方法,将分散的风险评价信息处理成不同灰类度的评价量,从而得出项目的综合风险等级.结合 B 灌区二期工程项目进行应用分析,为我国水利枢纽灌区PPP项目规避风险、降低损失提供切实可行的理论指导依据.%Based on the general characteristics of PPP projects in irrigation area of water conservancy and its particularity,the paper put forward a risk assessment system with 6 first-level risk indicators and 25 second-level risk indexes,in which the weight of each risk index is determined by AHP method.Using the triangle whiten function of grey clustering method in the risk assessment,scattered risk evaluation information are transformed into different grey degree,thus the comprehensive risk level of the project can be obtained.By applying this method into a second stage project of B Irrigation District,the findings of this study will provide a practical and theoretical guidance for avoiding risks and reducing losses in PPP projects of irrigation areas of water conservancy hubs in China.