基于VAR模型的城镇化进程与建筑业发展关联性分析

摘要

We collect some indicators to on behalf of China's urbanization process from 1995 to 2014 and construction industry development,and then analyze these indicators based on VAR model. The population urbanization and per capita GDP are the major indicators of measuring China's urbanization process,and the construction industry value adding is the major indicators of measuring construction industry development. The results show that China's urbanization has a strong pulling effect on construction industry development. Population urbanization is the Granger cause ofthe construction industry development and per capita GDP is the Granger cause of the construction industry development. From the results of variance analysis,the development of construction industry is caused by itself in the short term. But with the development of urbanization,the pull function on the construction of urbanization gradually obvious and it has a stable state in the 4th lag period.%基于VAR模型对我国1995~2014年的城镇化进程相关指标和建筑业发展相关指标数据进行分析.以城镇人口数量和人均GDP作为衡量城镇化进程的主要指标,以建筑业增值作为衡量建筑业发展的主要指标.结果表明:我国城镇化进程与建筑业发展之间有显著的影响,城镇人口数量的变动和人均GDP的变动是引起建筑业发展的原因.方差分解的结果显示,城镇人口和人均GDP对建筑业变动的贡献分别为6.77%和29.97%.随着城镇化的发展,城镇化对建筑业的拉动作用逐渐明显,在滞后期为4年后,趋于稳定状态.