PPP模式下城市基础设施融资风险评价

摘要

十八届三中全会提出允许社会资本通过特许经营等方式参与城市基础设施投资和运营，但这种 PPP 模式下城市基础设施项目一般具有投资大、周期长、参与者众多、融资结构复杂等特点，资金管理、分配及后续经营等环节问题层出不穷，导致融资难度大、融资风险增大。从融资方的角度识别出融资风险因素，分析融资风险因素之间的相互关系，构建了融资风险系统动力学的因果关系图和流程图模型。结合具体案例，利用模型通过仿真分析对 PPP 模式下城市基础设施融资风险进行评价，有利于相关部门提高融资风险管理水平。%The third plenary session of the 18th central committee of the communist party of china proposed allowing the social capital to participate in urban infrastructure investment and operation through franchising. However,urban infrastructure projects based on PPP mode generally have the characteristics of large investment,long period,multi-parties,complex financing structure, etc. Problems in fund management,distribution and operation,lead to financing difficulty and financing risks. Firstly,this paper gives a systematic analysis from the perspective of the financing side of the financing risk factors,makes a detailed analysis of the interactional relations among the risk factors,and then builds system dynamics feedback model and flow chart of urban infrastructure financing risks. With real example,this paper simulates the model and evaluates the financing risk of infrastructure projects in favor of the relevant departments to improve financial risk management.