延安宝塔山景区滑坡地质灾害风险评估

摘要

滑坡灾害易损性可分为两大类型:人口易损性和经济易损性.本文依据现场风险填图对宝塔山景区影响居民生命和财产安全的地质灾害进行了风险源的识别,认为宝塔山景区的风险源主要为潜在的滑坡及崩塌灾害,最大风险处人员伤亡总概率为2.62×10~(-2)·a~(-1);同时,依据工程地质经验法对风险管理易损性各要素进行了定量评价,认为对宝塔山景区居民来说,100a以内居民平均每年有最大2.62%伤亡的概率存在.根据国际较通用的风险容许标准,认为目前部分宝塔山居民遭受的风险处于不可接受区,建议加强监测.%The paper presents the characteristics of landslide hazards and the style of possible elements at risk at the Baota mountain in Yan'an city. Accordingly, the vulnerability for the landslide hazard is divided for two parts; population vulnerability and economy vulnerability. The sources of risks affecting the safety of live and property are recognized based on the local risk mapping. So, the quantitative analysis is carried out on the factors referring to the vulnerability. In particular, the analysis is also used engineering geological experience. The risk that the local people living at the BaoTa Mountain maybe encounter is assessed. At present, the risk to some of the local people cannot be accepted following the international standard. Landslide monitoring has to be undertaken to have earlier warning for reducing the risk.